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In this section, we will look at the actual data of the Pfizer vaccine, but first it's important to watch the first two videos to understand the difference between absolute risk reduction and relative risk reduction.
In this section, we will look at the actual data of the Pfizer vaccine, but first it's important to watch the first two videos to understand the difference between absolute risk reduction and relative risk reduction.
RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK REDUCTION. (5 minutes)
RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK REDUCTION. (5 minutes)
NNT: NUMBER NEEDED TO TREAT
(4 minutes)
NNT: NUMBER NEEDED TO TREAT
(4 minutes)
The important lesson from the two videos above is understanding the difference between the reduction of the absolute risk and the relative risk.  The NNT (Number Needed to Treat) is the number of people that need to get treatment for one person to get the benefit of the treatment.  For example, if a drug or vaccine reduced the absolute risk (not relative risk) of a disease by 50%, then the NNT is 1 divided by 0.5 = 2. Therefore, for every 2 people treated, one person would receive the benefit since 1÷ 0.5 = 2.  The key is to use the difference in the absolute risk, not the relative risk.  The NNT  formula is 1÷ (Absolute risk reduction).
The important lesson from the two videos above is understanding the difference between the reduction of the absolute risk and the relative risk.  The NNT (Number Needed to Treat) is the number of people that need to get treatment for one person to get the benefit of the treatment.  For example, if a drug or vaccine reduced the absolute risk (not relative risk) of a disease by 50%, then the NNT is 1 divided by 0.5 = 2. Therefore, for every 2 people treated, one person would receive the benefit since 1÷ 0.5 = 2.  The key is to use the difference in the absolute risk, not the relative risk.  The NNT formula is 1÷ (Absolute risk reduction).

THE NNT ANALYSIS OF THE PFIZER VACCINE:

THE NNT ANALYSIS OF THE PFIZER VACCINE:

How did this study yield a 95 % effectiveness rate? In the placebo (non-vaccinated group), there were 162 cases of COVID-19.  In the vaccinated group, there were 8 cases. 8 ÷ 162 = 0.049 (or rounding to 0.05) which means 8 cases is only 5% of 162 cases. Therefore, the vaccinated group had 95% few cases than the non-vaccinated group. But to calculate the NNT, we need to look at the absolute risk reduction. 

In the placebo group, there were 162 cases of COVID-19 out of 21,728 participants: 162÷21,728 = 0.00745 or 0.745%.  In the vaccinated group, there were 8 cases out of 21,720:  8÷21,720 = 0.000368 or 0.0368 %.  

The ABSOLUTE risk reduction  0.745% - 0.036% = 0.709%. 
The NNT is 1 ÷ 0.709%  OR 1÷ 0.00709= 141. What this means is that 141 people need to be vaccinated in order for 1 person to benefit from the vaccine. 

But there is more to the story: In his book "The Truth About COVID-19," Dr. Mercola points out that the cycle thresholds are not specified (See more about cycle thresholds on this website here), and it is not specified whether having 141 people vaccinated to help 1 person involves that 1 person not dying,  not being hospitalized, or not simply testing positive.

In summary, 141 people have to be vaccinated to make sure one of those persons doesn't test positive for COVID-19. We don't know if the vaccine prevents hospitalizations or death. 
How did this study yield a 95 % effectiveness rate? In the placebo (non-vaccinated group), there were 162 cases of COVID-19.  In the vaccinated group, there were 8 cases. 8 ÷ 162 = 0.049 (or rounding to 0.05) which means 8 cases is only 5% of 162 cases. Therefore, the vaccinated group had 95% few cases than the non-vaccinated group. But to calculate the NNT, we need to look at the absolute risk reduction. 

In the placebo group, there were 162 cases of COVID-19 out of 21,728 participants: 162÷21,728 = 0.00745 or 0.745%.  In the vaccinated group, there were 8 cases out of 21,720:  8÷21,720 = 0.000368 or 0.0368 %.  

The ABSOLUTE risk reduction  0.745% - 0.036% = 0.709%. 
The NNT is 1 ÷ 0.709%  OR 1÷ 0.00709= 141. What this means is that 141 people need to be vaccinated in order for 1 person to benefit from the vaccine. 

But there is more to the story: In his book "The Truth About COVID-19," Dr. Mercola points out that the cycle thresholds are not specified (See more about cycle thresholds on this website here), and it is not specified whether having 141 people vaccinated to help 1 person involves that 1 person not dying, not being hospitalized, or not simply testing positive.

In summary, 141 people have to be vaccinated to make sure one of those persons doesn't test positive for COVID-19. We don't know if the vaccine prevents hospitalizations or death. 

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